Energy Modeling

Energy Modeling at SEI-US
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Pathways to Mexico's climate change mitigation targets: A multi-model analysis

Energy Economics, 56, 587–599

Author(s): Veysey, J. ; Octaviano, C.; Calvin, K.; Herreras Martinez, S.; Kitousf, A.; McFarland, J.; van der Zwaan, B.
Date: May 2016

Research Area(s): Energy Modeling ; Climate Mitigation Policy

This article explores paths to deep climate change mitigation in Mexico by 2050, presenting results from six models and comparing them with Mexican climate policy. Mexico's climate policy sets ambitious national greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets – 30% versus a business-as-usual baseline by 2020, 50% versus 2000 by 2050. However, these goals are at odds with recent energy and emission trends in the country. The authors investigate how Mexico might reverse current trends and reach its mitigation targets by exploring results from energy system and economic models involved in the CLIMACAP-LAMP project.
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The SEI Initiative on the Water, Energy and Food Nexus

SEI fact sheet

Author(s): Huber-Lee, A. ; Kemp-Benedict, E. ; Gill, T.
Date: August 2015

Research Area(s): Water Resources ; Energy Modeling

The new SEI Initiative on the Water, Energy and Food Nexus investigates cross sector links between water, energy, and food to support those who govern and manage these systems to work together to meet human aspirations sustainably. Resource scarcity and climate change pose formidable challenges, and robust evidence-based methodologies built on the nexus framework and applied jointly with stakeholders can be valuable tools in efforts to meet them. The initiative will apply analytical tools and analysis in a set of case studies to be of real use to decision-makers and managers in the areas of water, energy, food production and ecosystems.
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An integrated assessment of water-energy and climate change in Sacramento, California: How strong is the nexus?

Climatic Change, online July 14, 2015

Author(s): Dale, L.L. ; Purkey, D. ; Heaps, C. ; Sieber, J. ; Karali, N.; Millstein, D.; Carnall, M.; Vicuña, S.; Borchers, N.; Bustos, E.; O'Hagan, J.; Collins, W.D.; Sohn, M.D.
Date: July 2015

Research Area(s): Water Resources ; Energy Modeling ; Adaptation & Vulnerability

This paper is among the first to report on the full integration of basin-scale models that include projections of the demand and supply of water and energy for residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural sector users. The authors link two widely used regional planning models, WEAP and LEAP, to study the impact of rising climate variability on water and electricity use in Sacramento, Calif. Historical data, combined with the current energy and water system configuration, were used to assess the implications of changes in temperature and precipitation. Climate simulations suggest that electricity imports to the region would increase during hot dry spells, when regional power production is most constrained. In particular, regional imports of electricity would increase over 35% in hot dry years, assuming a 4°C increase in average temperature and a 25% decrease in average precipitation.
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Tackling complexity: Understanding the food-energy-environment nexus in Ethiopia's Lake Tana Sub-basin

Water Alternatives 2015, 8(1), 710-734

Author(s): Karlberg, L. ; Binnington, T. ; Flores, F. ; Young, C. ; Hoff, H.; Amsalu, T.; Andersson, K.; de Bruin, A.; Gebrehiwot, S.G.; Gedif, B.; zur Heide, .; Johnson, O.; Osbeck, M.
Date: January 2015

Research Area(s): Water Resources ; Energy Modeling

This article describes a nexus toolkit, including WEAP and LEAP, to evaluate different development trajectories for Ethiopia. Ethiopia is growing rapidly and is to become a middle-income country by 2025. To achieve this, the country is implementing an industrialization strategy led by agricultural development. It aims to intensify and transform agriculture, boost yields and economic returns. At the same time, energy use is shifting from traditional biomass to large-scale hydroelectric power generation with the intention of improving access to modern energy sources. While the targets are commendable, it is not clear that either all direct impacts or potential conflicts between goals have been considered. This paper evaluates and compares the impacts of alternative development trajectories pertaining to agriculture, energy and environment for a case-study location, the Lake Tana Subbasin.
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Applying the nexus – meeting Ethiopia's development goals by addressing links between water, energy and food

SEI policy brief

Author(s): Karlberg, L. ; Binnington, T. ; Flores, F. ; Young, C. ; Hoff, H.; Amsalu, T.; Andersson, K.; de Bruin, A.; Gebrehiwot, S.G.; Gedif, B.; zur Heide, F.; Johnson, O.; Osbeck M.
Date: January 2015

Research Area(s): Water Resources ; Energy Modeling

This policy brief reports on one of the first times that a nexus approach has been applied on the ground. SEI used its nexus toolkit – the WEAP and LEAP tools for water and energy planning – to assess the ambitious development plans of the Ethiopian Government in terms of their impact on food, energy and the environment. SEI worked with local planners, scientists and NGO staff from the agriculture, energy, water and environment sectors to develop three scenarios: business as usual, following the government's national growth plans, and a nexus approach. The work revealed that, by not taking sufficient account of the links between sectors and resources, the government's plans may not be sustainable or achievable without a toll on human well-being and ecosystems.
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