Sustainable Futures

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Dynamic Stability of Post-Keynesian Pricing

The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics 17(2), online 24 February 2017

Author(s): Kemp-Benedict, E.
Date: February 2017

Research Area(s): Sustainable Futures

Conventional economic theory assumes a Walrasian pricing mechanism that is known to pose theoretical difficulties. Less well-known is that conventional price theory conflicts with empirical studies of price-setting in industrial firms. Post-Keynesian theory, which assumes mark-up pricing on normal costs and infrequent price changes, is consistent with observation.

This paper shows that post-Keynesian pricing, unlike conventional pricing, features stable dynamics. The analysis focus on the short run, because post-Keynesian theory posits complex and historically contingent long-term price dynamics. Specifically, the paper shows that under very general conditions, prices converge to a unique equilibrium price vector.


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Testing a multi-scale scenario approach for smallholder tree plantations in Indonesia and Vietnam

Technological Forecasting and Social Change 80(4), 762-771

Author(s): Dermawana, A. ; Kemp-Benedict, E. ; Huber-Lee, A. ; Fencl, A.
Date: May 2013

Research Area(s): Sustainable Futures

This article presents a participatory method for constructing cross-scale scenario logics, which applies when different locales are embedded within a common higher-level scenario. Smallholder tree plantations are seen as promising routes to alleviating poverty and increasing forest area among the countries in Southeast Asia. However, implementation has been disappointing, which led scientists at the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) to consider a scenario exercise as a way to mitigate the risk of unwanted outcomes. The authors chose an explicitly multi-scale approach, and applied the method during two scenario workshops held to explore the use of smallholder tree plantations in efforts to improve rural livelihoods; each workshop considered two different localities. From these experiences, they discuss and critique the method.
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Downscaling global income scenarios assuming institutional convergence or divergence

Global Environmental Change, in press; available online July 2, 2012

Author(s): Kemp-Benedict, E.
Date: July 2012

Research Area(s): Sustainable Futures

This paper offers a new approach to generating long-term global scenarios of economic growth at national level. It presents a simple model grounded in the economic theory of conditional convergence. The free parameters in the model, which characterize different scenarios, reflect rates of institutional and structural convergence between countries. The model can be used either for generating new global economic scenarios, or for downscaling existing regional economic scenarios.
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Energy for a Shared Development Agenda: Global Scenarios and Governance Implications

SEI Report

Author(s): Nilsson, M. ; Heaps, C. ; Persson, Å; Carson, M.; Pachauri, S.; Kok, M.; Olsson, M.; Rehman, I.; Schaeffer, R.; Wood, D.; van Vuuren, D.; Riahi, K.; Americano, B.; Mulugetta; Y.
Date: June 2012

Research Area(s): Energy Modeling ; Climate Mitigation Policy ; Sustainable Futures

This report combines a global assessment of energy scenarios up to 2050, case studies of energy access and low-carbon efforts around the world, and a review of the technological shifts, investments, policies and governance structures needed to bring energy to all. It finds that it is, indeed, possibly to meet energy needs for human and economic development in a way that is compatible with sustainable development. However, what is required is nothing less than a massive transformation of energy systems and rapid turnovers of infrastructure and technology, driven by strong policies and a shared development agenda across the global North and South.
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Building a Low-carbon Future: Resource Constraints and Key Strategies to Overcome Them

SEI / 3C summary for decision-makers

Author(s): Davis, M. ; based on work by M. Chadwick, V. Clark, E. Dawkins, R. Falk, J. Fahnestock, A. Fencl, S. Kartha, E. Kemp-Benedict, V. Mehta, D. Purkey, K. Roelich, A. Varnäs and D. Yates
Date: June 2012

Research Area(s): Water Resources ; Energy Modeling ; Sustainable Futures

This document summarizes the findings of three studies on resource scarcity and the green economy carried out within the partnership programme between the business leaders' initiative Combat Climate Change (3C) and the Stockholm Environment Institute. Building a 'green' economy – with a special focus on energy – is seen as a key strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and prevent dangerous climate change. For countries without vast fossil-fuel reserves, it is also a way to gain energy independence and security. Yet it is also becoming clear that resource constraints could hinder this endeavor. The studies summarized here examine potential constraints in the supplies of biomass, metals and water for low-carbon technologies, and suggest response strategies for both the public and private sectors.
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