Using Base-Year Data with Empirical Scenario Models

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 76, Issue 6, pp 759-770

Author(s): Kemp-Benedict, E.
Year: 2008

Research Area(s): Sustainable Futures

Description: In quantitative scenarios, empirical models are frequently used to provide estimated values for variables. However, in the base year the values are known, and will almost certainly be different from the values estimated by the model. It is shown that the gaps between observed and modeled values (the residuals, or shift factors) in the base year can be used to provide estimates of the residuals in the scenario that improve the performance of the empirical model. A self-consistent estimator is proposed, and is shown to be effective by applying it to specific examples.

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