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Pathways to Mexico's climate change mitigation targets: A multi-model analysis

Energy Economics, 56, 587–599

Author(s): Veysey, J. ; Octaviano, C.; Calvin, K.; Herreras Martinez, S.; Kitousf, A.; McFarland, J.; van der Zwaan, B.
Year: 2016

This article explores paths to deep climate change mitigation in Mexico by 2050, presenting results from six models and comparing them with Mexican climate policy.

Mexico's climate policy sets ambitious national greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets – 30% versus a business-as-usual baseline by 2020, 50% versus 2000 by 2050. However, these goals are at odds with recent energy and emission trends in the country. Both energy use and GHG emissions in Mexico have grown substantially over the last two decades.

The authors investigate how Mexico might reverse current trends and reach its mitigation targets by exploring results from energy system and economic models involved in the CLIMACAP-LAMP project. To meet Mexico's emission reduction targets, all modeling groups agree that decarbonization of electricity is needed, along with changes in the transport sector, either to more efficient vehicles or a combination of more efficient vehicles and lower carbon fuels. These measures reduce GHG emissions as well as emissions of other air pollutants.

The models find different energy supply pathways, with some solutions based on renewable energy and others relying on biomass or fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage. The economy-wide costs of deep mitigation could range from 2% to 4% of GDP in 2030, and from 7% to 15% of GDP in 2050.

The results suggest that Mexico has some flexibility in designing deep mitigation strategies, and that technological options could allow Mexico to achieve its emission reduction targets, albeit at a cost to the country.

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